As per the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) the average temperature for the months of March to May 2021 will be above normal seasonal maximum temperatures. Most of the subdivisions of south peninsula and adjoining central India are forecasted to be the exception to the norm. Above normal seasonal minimum temperatures are likely over most of the subdivisions of north India along the foot hills of Himalayas, northeast India, western part of central India and southern part of peninsular India.
However, below normal season minimum temperatures are likely over most of the subdivisions of eastern part of the central India and few subdivisions of extreme northern part of the country. The model climatology was prepared based on retrospective forecasts for 16 years (2003-2018).
Maximum Discomfort
Chattisgarh, Odisha, Konkan and Goa are expected to register highest increase in daytime temperatures. Noerthern part of Kerela and Karnataka may witness marginally cooler maximum temperatures in the three month period of March to May 2021. Haryana experienced a short but intense summer in 2020, and the trend is expected to repeat this time round. Central Maharashtra and western Madhya Pradesh are one of the hottest regions in India and as per IMD, these regions will either stay at par with long term maximum temperatures or register below normal summer heat.
Image Courtesy: IMD
According to IMD, India’s annual temperature departure – in 2020 – of +0.29°C was the eighth highest since national records began in 1901. India’s warmest year took place in 2016 with a temperature departure of +0.71°C. Twelve of India’s 15 warmest years have occurred since 2006.
Night Relief
As per IMD’s forecast, the minimum temperature across India will hover around the long-term average. Konkan and Goa are once again outliers to the national trend. Western Rajasthan, most parts of central India and the deccan region are expected to experience some relief during evening and late night-time temperature.
Image Courtesy: IMD
Monitor the Thermometer
IMD will publish a second update around 1st April 2021. It will also publish a weekly bulletin of extended range forecast valid for four weeks. Heat wave warning, valid up to five days, will be issued as and when the IMD deems fit. Special heat wave warning for the day will be issued at 08:00 AM and it will be updated at 02:00 PM. Impact based heat wave warning and heat action updated at 02:00 PM. Impact based heat wave warning and heat action plan will be put in place after consultation with National Disaster Management Authority. In the past few years, IMD has improved the accuracy of its prediction and it has helped in reducing loss of life and property.
A marginal increase in temperature may not seem like a cause of concern or a call to action, but its impact on agriculture and our well-being are well-documented. Last summer was spent indoors due to the lockdown imposed to contain the spread of COVID-19, though, in 2021 the heat will have to be borne for the sake of livelihood. Climate change is here and we don’t yet have a planet ‘B’. Preserve planet Earth, else perish.