top of page
  • Raghav Sand

IndEcon March 2021

The gross GST revenue collected in the month of February 2021 was ₹1,13,143 crore. The total revenue of Centre and the States after regular settlement and ad-hoc settlement in the month of February 2021 was ₹67,490 crore for CGST and ₹68,807 crore for the SGST.

In line with the trend of recovery in the GST revenues over past five months, the revenues for the month of February 2021 are 7% higher than the GST revenues in the same month last year. During February 2021, revenues from import of goods was 15% higher and the revenues from domestic transaction (including import of services) are 5% higher than the revenues from these sources during the same month last year.

The GST revenues crossed ₹1 lakh fifth time in a row and crossed ₹1.1 lakh crore third time in a row post pandemic despite this being revenue collection of the month with 28 days. This is a clear indication of the economic recovery and the impact of various measures taken by tax administration to improve compliance. The chart below shows trends in monthly gross GST revenues during the current financial year.

Data: Ministry of Finance

Car Sales Data

Automobile sales is a good parameter for assessing the health of the economy. There has been steady rise in sales for the past six months. Personal mobility is the preferred way to commute for an increasing number of people. Market leader Maruti Suzuki consolidated its position at the top of the pile with a stellar February by registering a growth of 8.3% year-on-year (Y-o-Y). Hyundai crossed 50K mark in February with help from new launches. Tata Motors grabbed all the headlines and eyeballs by more than doubling its units sold – 119% increase in sales was achieved due to sustained demand for its models launched in 2020.

Data: Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations

Most other major automobile manufacturers reported an increase in sales, but Ford had a forgettable February – selling under 6,000 units, the company reported an 18% fall in sales. Toyota sold almost 4,000 more cars as compared to February last year.

FPI and Sensex

Indian financial markets are scaling new highs every month. Markets gave thumbs-up to the Union Budget 2021. Government’s plan to divest some public sector undertakings is seen as a positive step by the investors.

Data: Bombay Stock Exchange

Oil in Turmoil

Prices of petroleum products have risen sharply in the last one year. Crude oil prices hit record low in the first half of 2020, but Government of India did not pass on the benefit to the end consumer. Instead, it raised the excise duty on fuel and state governments followed suit. If we were to segregate the price of fuel into different heads, the tax component outweighs the price of oil, agent commission and logistics.

During the winter season, food inflation remains low and any increase in transportation cost can be offset by low cost of production and bumper output. With the onset of summer, food inflation may start to head towards uncomfortable territory, and it seems like the Government will relent only when it is essential. Bringing petroleum products under the ambit of GST is facing resistance from policy makers. Industry leaders and economists are in favour of such a move, but political will and loss of revenue for the Government are roadblocks.

Major oil producing countries have decided to cut production in the month of April despite recent price surge, opting to reduce supply until the global economic recovery is more firmly established. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allied producers said that they would largely roll over production cuts during the month of April. Most OPEC members balance their budgets with oil money. They have to judiciously extract their natural resource to avoid runaway fiscal deficit. The spiraling effect of revenue shortfall for these countries can be catastrophic.

bottom of page